BUHARI WINS

SWAGUNSTV SPECIAL REPORT

2015 ELECTION EDITION (2)

Buhari: Fourth Time Lucky

By Tokunbo Adedoja

For Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), the road to the presidency has been long and tortuous. But with persistence, much improved party structures, with the Nigerian people on his side, and some luck, he eventually achieved his ultimate goal.
Until March 30, 2015, Abraham Lincoln was probably the greatest global example of persistence in the search for elective office by a politician, having lost eight elections into the state legislature, United States congress and vice-presidential nomination, before eventually becoming the president of the United States of America in 1860.

With his emergence as president-elect yesterday, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) has emerged as a modern example of persistence in the pursuit of political office. Before his emergence as president-elect yesterday, Buhari had ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 2003, 2007 and 2011, ending his quest on each occasion in protracted legal battles.

Like Lincoln, he persevered and consistently presented himself for election in every election cycle for a period spanning 12 years, which climaxed in a fourth but successful attempt at the presidency in last weekend’s election. In all his previous attempts at the presidency, he emerged the runner-up, garnering millions of votes but mostly from the North where he hails from.

Those twelve years also saw him pursing his presidential bids on the platform of three different political parties. First was the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) on whose platform he vied in 2003 and 2007, unsuccessfully. In 2011, he jumped ship to press on with his presidential aspiration on the platform of the then newly formed Congress for Progressive Change (CPC)  but lost to incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Until the March 28 presidential election, the 2011 election was his closest attempt at the presidency because of the clamour for a president of northern extraction following the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua.

But for a twist of fate, that defeat would have ended his presidential bid, as he had publicly declared never to vie for the Office of the President again.

In all those contests, the defeats he suffered were primarily because of lack of political platforms with a national spread, absence of funds for political campaigns and the toga of religious fundamentalist, which he just could not shake off.

His road to a successful bid for the presidency however began in 2013 when leaders of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), ANPP, CPC, and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), began to hold merger talks for the formation of a mega opposition party. Even though he had declared he would not be contesting for the presidency again, as the parties metamorphosed into the All Progressives Congress (APC) and with the defection of five PDP governors, along with several state and national legislators from their respective states, into the APC, his presidential hope was rekindled.

His emergence as the APC presidential standard bearer last December after a keenly contested presidential primary conveniently placed him on a stronger platform to achieve his presidential bid. The reason was clear: he had built a cult-like support base in the North and unlike in previous attempts, a pan-Nigerian platform which placed him in a good stead in the Southwest, which with the second largest voter population was now available to him to achieve his decade-old aspiration.

This was further boosted by improved financial resources, well-coordinated campaign rallies, and a campaign mantra that resonated with voters who had become weary with the ruling PDP. A combination of other factors, particularly the insurgency in the North-east which had claimed over 15,000 lives and displaced an estimated two million people, the perception by the people that   Jonathan was ineffective in tackling the security challenges and corruption in government, also conspired to boost his presidential bid. In all of these, he was seen by many as the man with the solution to the plethora of problems plaguing the country.

For the security challenges, his background as military general became a plus. And for the problem of corruption, his track record of his anti-corruption crusade during his 18 months as military head of state was a reference point. His military postings as governor of the North-east and Minister of Petroleum in the military era, were also listed as some of his strong points to tackle the challenges confronting the nation. These became his selling points in all his campaign rallies that were driven by the Change mantra.

Even though the past six weeks had seen the insurgents in the Northeast pushed back and occupied territories recovered, Buhari, as President and Commander-in-Chief from May 29 will now oversee the consolidation of the gains made by the military. His government will also be saddled with the onerous task of rebuilding devastated communities in the North-east and resettling millions of internally displaced persons.

He would also have to confront the hydra-headed problem of corruption that many see as the bane of Nigeria’s development, in addition to reducing poverty and tackling high rate of unemployment in the country.
Another key issue which his government will have to contend with is the economy which is currently contending with dwindling revenue due to the fall in oil prices.

Interestingly, his victory in the 2015 presidential election is coming 30 years after the military government he headed was ousted from power. No doubt, this 72-year-old general will be coming back into office as a democratically elected president with a wealth of experience.

How the NGF Election Crisis Cost Jonathan His Re-election

By Tokunbo Adedoja

When a crisis broke out in the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF) in 2013 following a disputed election between Rivers State Governor Chibuike Amaechi and Plateau State Governor Jonah Jang, many never thought that the crisis in the governors’ club would shape the outcome of last weekend’s presidential election, which was then two years away.

Many analysts had thought that beyond the unnecessarily heating up of the polity and distracting the key gladiators from concentrating on governance, it was just a muscle-flexing exercise between a “recalcitrant” Ameachi, who was then chairman of the forum, and President Goodluck Jonathan.  Like in every duel between strong and weak political combatants, the outcome was erroneously thought to be predictable – polarisation and eventual death of the forum, a reduction of Ameachi’s influence among his colleagues, and an end to the ability of the forum to present a unified front against the president and his policies.

Yes, the prediction was accurate. The crisis polarised the forum, weakened Amaechi’s political influence among the 36 state governors, and ended the ability of the governors to present a common front on any issue where conflict existed with the federal government.

But two years after, it has dawned on the presidency that it was a pyrrhic victory. Sadly, it was too late. Jonathan’s re-election bid has been dealt a fatal blow.

How did the crisis in the forum start? Amaechi, a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governor, who was then the chairman of the forum, was accused of publicly criticising several of Jonathan’s policies and using the platform to mobilise his colleagues, a chunk of who were in opposition parties, to oppose federal government’s deductions from the revenue accruing to the federation that should have been shared among all tiers of government.

Even though the presidency could not do much to check him, it waited patiently for his tenure to come to an end and hoped that he would be replaced by a friendly leadership. But emboldened by the strong support he enjoyed among his colleagues, particularly governors elected on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN), Amaechi declared his intention to seek another term in office.

Convinced that he had the support of majority of his colleagues, for the first time in its history, an election was called to choose the chairmanship of a forum that ordinarily should be an assemblage of state chief executives that had no constitutionally recognised role. The presidency quickly deployed its arsenal, creating the PDP Governors’ Forum whose membership constituted the majority in the NGF to foil Amaechi’s second term bid.

Though Bauchi State Governor Isa Yuguda signified his intention to vie for the NGF chairmanship position, Jang was adopted as the consensus candidate of the PDP Governors’ Forum - a bloc vote that should have been the killer punch to Amaechi’s aspiration.

But when elections were consequently held at a gathering that had 35 governors in attendance (excluding Yuguda), Amaechi polled 19 votes while Jang had 16. Both however laid claims to victory, a development that factionalised the forum with each of the two contestants setting up separate secretariats and retaining the governors that voted for them.

As the crisis in the NGF widened, it left in its trail, political casualties. First, the Northern Governors’ Forum had a direct hit.  Some of its members threatened to withdraw their membership, with Yuguda belling the cat.
Yuguda was one of the two governors that wanted to contest against Amaechi but later stepped down for Jang. It was apparent to governors on Jang’s side and the presidency that the votes of the Northern Governors’ Forum Chairman and Niger State Governor Babangida Aliyu; Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso; and Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido gave Ameachi the victory in the election.

The PDP Governors’ Forum, headed by Akwa Ibom State Governor Godswill Akpabio, whose membership constituted the bulk of those that voted for Jang, was also affected by the crisis, as those governors who voted for Amaechi stopped attending its meetings.

The NGF crisis later had insidious effect on the PDP as a party. At the party’s mini convention in August 2013, seven of its governors – Murtala Nyako (Adamawa),
Ahmed Abdulfattah (Kwara), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Lamido, Kwakwanso, Amaechi and Aliyu, as well as former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, among others, stormed out of the convention ground. Other than the outcome of the NGF election, the seven governors also had issues with the then National Chairman of the PDP, Bamangar Tukur, who they insisted must be sacked. But Jonathan refused to yield to their demands.

That was the beginning of the New PDP, which later dissolved into the mega opposition party, the All Progressive Congress (APC), though two of the governors – Aliyu and Lamido did not defect to APC. With the loss of five governors, not a few people believed that PDP had been struck by a fatal blow whose impact would only be felt in a general election.

In the end, Amaechi, under whose watch Rivers delivered 1.8 million votes to Jonathan in the 2011 election was to later emerge as the Director General of the APC standard-bearer Muhammadu Buhari Presidential Campaign Organisation, and one of the biggest financiers of the presidential bid of the retired general who had had three previous unsuccessful shots at the presidency. But this time around, it was Kwakwanso’s Kano that delivered a staggering 1.9 million votes to Buhari last Saturday.

Essentially, the NGF crisis that looked like a lambent flame in 2013 snowballed into an uncontrollable conflagration that has now cost Jonathan his re-election.

Buhari’s Inside Men

Largely, the presidential aspiration of Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) was made possible by the people who worked closely with him to actualise his 12-year-old dream to rule Nigeria as a democratically elected president,  writes  Olawale Olaleye

Bola Ahmed Tinubu
A former governor of Lagos State and one of the initiators of the Change platform – the All Progressives Congress (APC) – Senator Bola Tinubu will easily come to mind whenever the Muhammadu Buhari presidency is mentioned.
The self-styled progressive has always been an advocate of change despite some misgivings that often dot his idea of change. But Tinubu saw change coming early enough and saw in Buhari the vehicle through which that change could be made.
The alliance talks that started in 2011 and eventually culminated in the birth of the APC predated this year’s general election. And despite the many hiccups and challenges strewn in the path of change, he kept faith and pushed through until the dream was eventually reified last night.

As such, Tinubu is the de facto visionary, strategist and generalissimo who must be credited with making Buhari president.

Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi
At a time many failed to understand his idea of change or believed that change was possible, the Rivers State Governor, Chibuike Amaechi, not only saw ahead that it was possible, he was sure that with commitment and determination, change could be driven through to a logical conclusion.

That Amaechi gave his all at very great risk, including huge financial resources, only buttressed his conviction that Buhari was worth fighting for. In fact, the opposition in Rivers State often accused Amaechi of deploying his state’s resources into the Buhari project.

It was no less a risk that his belief probably would have sent him to the coolers had the project failed, but Amaechi forged ahead in his conviction, which was also propelled by his own personal ambition and instinct for self-preservation.

In this respect, Amaechi was no less a prominent personality in the Buhari-for-President project.

Muhammed Sarki-Abba
A close aide of Buhari for over 15 years, Muhammed Sarki-Abba is one individual who has been saddled with the responsibility of managing Buhari and his office as a former head of state. He deals with issues that relate to Buhari and his office.

As an insider, Sarki-Abba is also one of the few who have the ears of the retired general and has stuck with him, believing in his dream until it was realised on Tuesday.

Col. Abdul Hamid Ali
Former Military Administrator of Kaduna State, Col. Abdul Hamid Ali (rtd), has been Buhari’s Chief of Staff for many years. As part of his brief, it is Ali who manages the time and schedule of the former head of state and at the party level, harmonises his other programmes with that of political activities for a seamless itinerary.
Ali, it is believed, is the eyes and ears of the general, given his background as a retired military officer and former governor, two things they both share in common. He is one inside man the general does not joke with.

Nasir el-Rufai
The governorship hopeful of the APC in Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, is one of the intellectual bulwarks of the Buhari team. A former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, el-Rufai bought into the Buhari project early enough, having been part of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) team that fused into the APC.
He provided intellectual support to the team as well as the mobilisation of the people. He is one of the few closest allies of the president-elect from the North.

Kayode Fayemi
Immediate past governor of Ekiti State, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, like el-Rufai is another intellectual powerhouse on the Buhari team. Apart from providing this intellectual support, Fayemi is also the head of Buhari’s economic team, a position that has helped the team navigate and cut for itself some economic initiatives it claimed would help the country navigate the current economic challenges. Fayemi has quickly positioned himself as a person to be reckoned with among Buhari’s men.

Ibikunle Amosun
Unknown to many people, the Ogun State Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, is perhaps the closest of Buhari’s South-west allies. The two are so close that Buhari, until his victory at the presidential election last night, slept in his house. Amosun, on several occasions, also provided the vehicles and other logistics for easy movement of the general each time he visited the South-west.
Buhari, it is believed, is very comfortable with Amosun such that he would discuss anything with him. Given their closeness, it was rumoured at a time that it was Amosun who encouraged Buhari’s fourth attempt at the presidency after the retired general had said he would no longer contest for the post.

Senator Hadi Sirika
Senator Hadi Sirika, a former pilot and a senator from Katsina North Senatorial District, is currently the Vice-Chairman of the Senate Committee on Millennium Development Goals (MGDs). A very close ally of Buhari, Sirika is one person who stood the cause, despite the challenges.
Also a member of the Senate Committee on Aviation, Sirika has also spoken severally on President Goodluck Jonathan’s poor grasp of his brief and on a number of topical issues, trusting that whenever Buhari emerged president, things might begin to take a different turn.

He is close enough to cause a change in the Buhari team and a trustworthy ally of the president-elect.

Alhaji Mamman Daura
Alhaji Mamman Daura, a cousin of Buhari, is a journalist from Katsina State, who edited the New Nigerian newspapers and served as the company’s managing director. He was briefly a member of the Oputa panel charged with investigating human rights abuses in the country; served on the Dina Committee in 1968 as well as the Aboyade Technical Committee in 1977.

When Buhari emerged head of state following the 1983 coup, he was one of those who played an advisory role in his government and was a highly influential personality during the period. In the late 1980s, he succeeded his relative, Ibrahim Dasuki, as Chairman of the African International Bank and also served as chairman of the board of the Nigerian Television Network.

Given his closeness to the retired general, Daura, despite his age, is expected to play a behind-the-scenes role when Buhari takes over the ship of state.

Jonathan: The Making of a Statesman

Some called him clueless, others called him ineffectual, but an insightful assessment of President Goodluck Jonathan has shown that he is a true statesman and Nigeria’s ultimate pacifist, with the interest of the country always foremost on his mind,  writes Shaka Momodu

At exactly 5.15 pm on Tuesday, President Goodluck Jonathan wrote himself and Nigeria into the history books by calling the president-elect, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), to congratulate him on his victory at the presidential poll. Many had feared violence would erupt following the president’s defeat at the polls considering the acrimonious and personal attacks of the campaign season.
The international community was so concerned that it had to severally plead with candidates and their supporters not to tear the country apart. The palpable tension across the country was therefore understandable.

But the president’s action to concede defeat has dramatically moved the country several notches away from the brink of violence and disaster. It is such statesmanship that has for too long been missing in the country’s democratic march.  

He was vilified and insulted. There is perhaps no sitting president in the history of Nigeria that was taken to the cleaners the way Goodluck Ebele Jonathan was. But he has emerged the winner. Not of an electoral contest but his was a triumph of simplicity and calmness.

He suffered an electoral loss but he has secured a moral victory. While he takes a bow and retires to his country home, his place amongst the community of statesmen is assured.

Jonathan could have taken the shorter but dangerous road towards infamy; where his name would be written with a pen soaked in blood of his countrymen and women. Like he always said, he felt his ambition was not worth the blood of a single Nigerian. He lived by this principle throughout his campaign. He chose the high ground of moral and operational engagement.

Like an observer told THISDAY last week: “This is the first time an election would be conducted and there won’t be any high profile killing or political assassinations. I think President Jonathan should take the credit.”

As he superintended over the affairs of the country, even his staunchest critics concede to him the fact that he recorded landmark achievements. Perhaps, he focused more on his transformation projects and forgot that he was a politician. He did not seem to understand the vicious nature of the nation’s politics. But even at that, his legacies will surely outlive him.

Jonathan’s greatest achievement was broadening the democratic space. While Nigerians are aware that they are practising democracy, it is a known fact in Africa that incumbents often deploy state powers to muzzle the opposition. Members of the opposition are harassed and state institutions are often deployed to intimidate them and shut them out of the democratic space.

But not a certain Goodluck Jonathan. Some of his associates and aides believed that his tolerance of the opposition led to his loss of the election. But what many might have taken to be his weakness has turned out to be his strength and symbol of a legacy that will outlive him forever. He has also raised the bar in statesmanship to the extent that he might have unknowingly put those who benefitted from his “political tolerance” in a moral tight corner to do the same when they too are faced by a determined and relentless opposition.

Beyond his unequalled tolerance of opposition, Jonathan made the improvement of the nation’s infrastructure his priority. It is in this area that many of his critics have been forced to concede that he performed creditably. From roads to agriculture, water resources to food security, power to oil and gas, Jonathan ensured that Nigerians were made to feel the impact of government.

Many have said that he was too busy with this that he became unmindful of the need to secure his political base and second-term ambition.

In the area of road construction, Jonathan got a high score. For a long time, many felt the Sagamu-Benin expressway was cursed. So also was the Lagos-Ibadan expressway.
For eight years, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, an All Progressives Congress (APC) sympathiser and a harsh critic of the president, could not do anything on those roads.  But Jonathan took on these roads and worked on them. The portion of the Sagamu-Benin road that stretches from Ore to Benin City was totally reconstructed. This was a road that travellers used to spend nights on before its rehabilitation.

Today, the road is one of the smoothest in this part of the world. Not only has it been totally reconstructed, it has also been expanded with good lay-bys to make life easier for drivers in cases of emergency.
The Lagos-Ibadan expressway is also being reconstructed and expanded from the initial four lanes to six lanes. In fact, the reconstruction is being handled by two construction giants – Julius Berger and RCC Limited. In the northern and eastern part of the country, the story is the same. He has reconstructed many roads and built new ones.

Six hundred and sixty five kilometres of roads in the South-south were either constructed or rehabilitated under the Jonathan administration. Components of some of the road projects completed include the dualisation of East-West Road; Warri-Oron (Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers & Akwa ibom State) which stretches to 338 kilometres.
Reconstruction of the Owerri-Elele road, Imo/Rivers State (35.15km). Government is also constructing 12 other roads spread across the zone. Many of these are at various stages of completion.

Given the dire state of roads prior to 2010, the completion of these projects has brought the much needed improvements to the experience of both passenger travel, and transportation of goods. The improvements to roads have also opened up access to new and existing markets which has led to a boost in economic activities between the zone and the rest of the country.

It is not only in the area of road construction that Jonathan attempted to improve the nation’s transportation system. He also improved on the state’s rail system as well as waterways. For the first time in almost two decades, the nation’s rail system started working again with optimum capacity. There has been an increased use of inland waterways to stimulate economic activities following the dredging of over 572 kilometres of the Lower River Niger under his administration. In addition, passenger travel on inland waterways grew from 239,330 in 2010 to over 1.3 million in 2012, and turnaround times at ports and harbours in the South-south has reduced on average from 6.8 days in 2009 to 5.7days in 2012.
In the aviation sector, Jonathan had three airports – Margaret Epko International Airport terminal, Calabar, Benin Airport and Port Harcourt Airport – remodelled and upgraded alongside eight others across the nation. A total of 11 airport terminals were upgraded in 2013, and work on the remaining 11 is ongoing.

The manufacturing policies of the president’s administration also led to increased industrial activities, creating jobs and raising government revenues. Before the elections, the government was working assiduously to set Nigeria’s first Gas City at Ogidigbe in Delta State. The industrial park, which will consist of 5,000 small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to manufacture and produce goods and services in over 100 different sectors/areas of economy, will be a replica of the model in Ankara, Turkey.

Government through the Niger Delta Ministry has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ostim of Turkey for the establishment of even more industrial parks. The technical work on the project has commenced.

His achievements notwithstanding, Jonathan was slow to act in certain areas. He was weak in the area of guaranteeing security to the Nigerian people, misread and mismanaged the Boko Haram crisis till it was too late and cost him dearly at the polls.
He also failed to follow through on his own successful execution of the power sector privatisation programme such that he left out a strategic, integrated plan for gas and transmission infrastructure, which would have boosted electricity supply to consumers. He also failed to be firm on executive graft and oil theft, which hampered the country’s finances and led to the depletion of the country’s foreign reserves and oil savings.

Eventually, the Nigerian people felt he did not deserve a second term in office, and he has heeded their decision. In so doing, he demonstrated what no Nigerian leader has ever done. As he bows out of office, he has transformed into the ultimate pacifist.